Crypto Signal Profit Simulator: Win Rate vs Reward-Risk
See what a win rate and reward-to-risk actually do to an account — and why win rate alone is misleading.
A high win rate sounds great, but on its own it means nothing — the size of your wins versus your losses decides whether you make money. Enter a strategy’s numbers to see the expected outcome over many trades, and why a 90% win rate can still drain an account.
This shows the mathematical expectation (the long-run average), not one random run — real sequences vary, and fees and slippage make the real result worse. Educational only, not financial advice.
Risk note: This calculator is for education only and is not financial advice. Crypto trading is high-risk; never trade with money you cannot afford to lose, and remember that fees, slippage and gaps can make real outcomes worse than any model.
FAQ
Can you make money with a high win rate?
Not necessarily. Profit depends on expectancy — the win rate combined with how big your wins are versus your losses. A 90% win rate still loses money if the occasional loss is much larger than the frequent small wins. Always check the average loss size, not just the win-rate headline.
What win rate do you need to be profitable in trading?
It depends entirely on your reward-to-risk ratio, and win rate alone tells you nothing. At 1:1 you need to win more than 50% of trades; at 3:1 reward-to-risk even a win rate near 25–35% can come out ahead, because the larger winners cover the frequent small losses; at 1:0.5 you would still need over 67%. Enter your own numbers in the simulator above to see the expected outcome.
What is trading expectancy?
Expectancy is the average result you can expect per trade: (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). A positive expectancy grows an account over time; a negative one drains it, no matter how high the win rate looks. It is the single number that decides whether a strategy makes money.